The Design of Macroprudential Stress Tests

We study the design of stress tests that provide information about aggregate and idiosyncratic risk in banks' portfolios and impose contingent capital requirements. In the optimal static test, an adverse scenario fails all weak and some strong banks, limiting the stigma of failure. Sequential tests outperform static tests. Under natural conditions, the optimal sequential test consists of a precautionary recapitalization, followed by a scenario that fails only weak banks, similar to TARP in 2008, followed by SCAP in 2009. Our results also shed light on the Federal Reserve's decision to test the banks twice in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Authors have furnished an , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Did ESG Save the Day? Evidence From India During the COVID-19 Crisis

Investors have shown increasing interest in Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) in the past few years, especially during the financial crisis caused due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. SRI are evaluated on the basis of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria. ESG information allows investors to assess the risks associated with a particular firm and how the firm manages or intends to manage future risks. Amidst the increasing investor interest in ESG products, we attempt to study the value addition of ESG performance to investors during crisis period. Using a sample of ESG rated firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), we examine the investment performance, trading volumes and return volatility of ESG stocks in an emerging market like India during the COVID-19 crisis. The results of our event study conducted around the important events that have occurred in India during the COVID-19 pandemic provide evidence that investors can use ESG information as a signal of future stock performance. Most importantly, ESG performance provides downside protection during crisis times. Our results show that ESG performance does not prove to be detrimental to investment performance during normal times. Also, ESG performance was found to reduce stock return volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, our study attempts to establish an investment case for ESG stocks in emerging markets in India by providing support to the good management hypothesis.

The Stock Performance of Green Bond Issuers During COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of China

The green bond (GB) is a new financial product in the green finance field that has recently become a corporate social responsibility (CSR) tool for organizations. Previous studies show that high-CSR firms receive more trust from shareholders during a financial crisis. This paper aims to assess the stock performance of publicly listed Chinese companies that issued GBs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The bond sample covers 2016–2019 and consists of 67 listed issuers. The paper uses the event study method based on the market and Fama-French (1993) three-factor models. Our results show that GB issuers exhibited significantly positive cumulative abnormal stock returns on the official announcement dates of the COVID-19 outbreak. The positive cumulative abnormal returns are mainly driven by non-financial GB issuers rather than financial GB issuers. The results reflect the attitudes of investors toward GB-issuing companies primarily in the context of the crisis and contribute to the development of green finance policies.

Sectoral volatility spillovers and their determinants in Vietnam

Using the vector autoregression (VAR) connectedness approach, this paper investigates dynamic volatility spillovers across 14 sectors in Vietnam's stock market over the period 2012–2021. The study also explores the differences in sectoral spillovers before and after the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic. Additionally, the paper also investigates the effects of the current pandemic and macroeconomic fundamentals on intersectoral connectedness in Vietnam. Our findings show that volatility transmission across sectors fluctuates significantly over the research period and spikes during the Covid-19 pandemic. The total spillover index is approximately 64.23 per cent, indicating that volatility spillovers across the Vietnamese sectors are substantial. The risks from the stock market appear to spread quickly and easily across sectors in Vietnam. Among these 14 sectors, food, fisheries, and oil and gas act as net senders of risks while real estate and pharmacy are the greatest receivers of risk. The findings also confirm that the commerce, transportation, manufacturing, and service sectors are more sensitive to the Covid-19 pandemic crisis than other sectors in Vietnam. Furthermore, the empirical results show that an increase in daily Covid-19 infections increases volatility spillover across sectors. Policy implications have emerged based on these findings from this paper for the Vietnamese government and other emerging countries.

Sectoral volatility spillovers and their determinants in Vietnam

Using the vector autoregression (VAR) connectedness approach, this paper investigates dynamic volatility spillovers across 14 sectors in Vietnam's stock market over the period 2012–2021. The study also explores the differences in sectoral spillovers before and after the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic. Additionally, the paper also investigates the effects of the current pandemic and macroeconomic fundamentals on intersectoral connectedness in Vietnam. Our findings show that volatility transmission across sectors fluctuates significantly over the research period and spikes during the Covid-19 pandemic. The total spillover index is approximately 64.23 per cent, indicating that volatility spillovers across the Vietnamese sectors are substantial. The risks from the stock market appear to spread quickly and easily across sectors in Vietnam. Among these 14 sectors, food, fisheries, and oil and gas act as net senders of risks while real estate and pharmacy are the greatest receivers of risk. The findings also confirm that the commerce, transportation, manufacturing, and service sectors are more sensitive to the Covid-19 pandemic crisis than other sectors in Vietnam. Furthermore, the empirical results show that an increase in daily Covid-19 infections increases volatility spillover across sectors. Policy implications have emerged based on these findings from this paper for the Vietnamese government and other emerging countries.

Stock market integration and volatility spillovers: new evidence from Asia-Pacific and European markets

PurposeThis work investigates the volatility spillovers across stock markets and the nature of such spillovers through different periods of crises and tranquility.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily stock return volatility data from June 2003 to June 2021, the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method (based on Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012 approach) is employed to measure the degree of volatility spillovers/connectedness among stock markets of 24 Asia-Pacific and 12 European Union (EU) economies.FindingsThe empirical results from static analysis suggested that about 28.1% (63.7%) of forecast error variance in return volatility for Asia-Pacific (EU) markets is due to spillovers. The evidence from dynamic analysis suggested that during mid of the global financial crisis, European debt crisis (EDC) and Covid-19, the gross volatility spillovers for Asia-Pacific (EU) was around 67% (80%), 65% (80%) and 73% (67%), respectively. The degree of net volatility transmission from Singapore (Denmark) to other Asia-Pacific (EU) markets was found to be highest.Practical implicationsThe findings have crucial implications for the investors and portfolio managers in assessment of risk and optimum allocation of assets and investment decisions.Originality/valueThis study adds to the literature on risk management by systematically examining the impact of global financial crises, EDC and Covid-19 on the market interactions by capturing the magnitude, duration and pattern of the shock-specific market volatilities for a large sample of Asian and European markets using recent and large data set.

Determinants of non-performing loans in North Macedonia

This paper aims to examine macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the case of the Republic of North Macedonia. Following the respective literature review that indicates the GDP and the unemployment rate as the most relevant macroeconomic variables, and weighted average interest rate, gross loans, and lagged NPLs as the bank bank-specific ones, we apply an ARDL bounds testing approach to investigate the determinants of NPLs of this landlocked, new NATO member country that seeks access to the EU. The studied period is from the first quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2022, which includes apart from the severe financial crises, i.e. the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010-2012, the Pandemic Covid-19 period and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Our research output provides statistical evidence that the strongest long-run impact on NPLs comes from unemployment, GDP and interest rates;while Gross Loans seem not to have any significant effect. Our findings, holding both in the short- and the long-run, bear signs that are consistent with the economic theory. Overall, we add in the understanding, measuring, and forecasting of NPLs in a country under transition, and propose corrective macroeconomic policy measures in mitigating the related pressure and shocks, especially under periods of prolonged uncertainty.

Has previous loan rejection scarred firms from applying for loans during Covid-19?

The concept of the ‘discouraged’ borrower is well documented. In this paper, we consider whether smaller firms in the UK who have been previously rejected for bank loans have been scarred by the experience so badly that even in the presence of two exceptionally generous Covid-19 loan guarantee schemes, they still refuse to make an application. Furthermore, we also consider what happens when they do. As banks have either zero or minimal loss exposure, do they still maintain their normal strict lending protocols or do they relax their standards to fulfil the governments’ objective of supporting struggling businesses through the crisis? Our findings show that 72% of previously rejected borrowers are reluctant to request loans. We find some evidence that previously scarred firms faced such severe liquidity problems that they relaxed their distrust of banks during the Covid-19 crisis. However, their share of the government-guaranteed loan portfolio was slightly lower suggesting that banks were treating each new loan application on its merits.Plain English SummaryThe Covid-19 crisis hit smaller businesses so hard that even previously rejected borrowers were forced to apply for loans to keep them afloat. Previous loan rejections have not discouraged small businesses in the UK in applying for Covid-19 government-guaranteed loans. Banks have used the loan guarantee schemes to continue to supply loans to small business during the pandemic. Our paper analyses the important phenomenon of borrower scarring and discouragement, when potential debtors are self-excluded from the lending market because they have previous rejections or expect a negative bank response. We consider around 45,000 UK small businesses from 2018 to 2020. On the demand side, we find that the economic shock for small businesses during the pandemic dissipates the scarring effect. Specifically, we find that micro and small businesses had the highest loan demand in the first two quarters of the pandemic (from March 2020). On the supply side, we show that scarred borrowers were not routed onto Covid-19 government-guaranteed loan schemes. These findings show the importance of government-backed lending schemes for small businesses during crisis period.

Assessing the determinants of non-performing loans under financial crisis and health crisis: evidence from the MENA banks

The main objective of this paper is to investigate determinants of non-performing loans in the Middle East and North Africa region by exploring the role of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors, particularly in the period of the global financial crisis, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, as a health crisis that translates to an economic crisis. This study includes 74 banks belonging to 11 MENA countries over the period 2005–2020 and uses the two-stage system generalized method of moment estimator. To conduct a comparative analysis, the whole sample is divided into two sub-samples. The first one is related to the Middle East countries and the second one covers North African countries. The empirical findings indicate that the level of non-performing loans is more sensitive to bank specifics than macroeconomic factors. When it comes to macroeconomic factors, macroeconomic environment and institutional quality significantly affect the level of NPLs. However, no significant effect has been detected regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022 The Author(s). This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license.

Investor attention and reaction in COVID-19 crisis: sentiment analysis in the Indian stock market

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the influence of attention and sentiment in the Indian stock market during the unusual COVID-19 crisis in the first and second waves of the pandemic. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to estimate the expected return. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with optimal lag value selection and Granger causality using the vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation model were applied to find out whether there is a causal relationship between investors' attention and sentiment that influence stock returns across 14 sectors. Findings The results show that increased attention to COVID-19 substantially varied in the first wave and second wave market reactions. The upsurge attention of COVID-19 shows a negative influence with lower expected returns in the second wave. The sentiment of investors contrasts from the lower expected return in the first wave to the higher expected return in the second wave of the pandemic. Moreover, investors' sentiment in a state of fear is associated with lower returns. Originality/value The authors capture sentiment based on attention and investors mood using novel data set during the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The study is among a few which take a comprehensive stock market response during initial and subsequent waves across sector returns.

IMPACT ON FII & DII IN COVID FIRST WAVE: INDIA

India is on the path of Digital India, FII and DII’s in the country boost the country’s economy. Both FII and DII have dominant role in capital formation which assists in assets formation along with investments in the stock market form of trading of various securities. FII funds a capital sources in India from foreign countries, affect the financial system and boost the economical growth. During pandemic, covid -19 the Indian economy has faced severe changes which affected the DII and FDI funds too. The research paper points on the changes in the FII and DII funds due to pandemic with reference to increase in covid cases. Design/Methodology/Approach-The paper employs quantitative approach have exploratory research design. The secondary has been collected from authorized government sites i.e. www.moneycontrol.com & www.statista.com for infusion of FII and DII funds in India and data sheet of COVID-19 cases in India( January 2020 to December 2020). Furthermore, for analyze of data SPSS version 20 has been used. Correlation & regression and ANOVA;Statistical techniques have been applied to reach the findings. The findings exhibits that there has been a significant changes in FII and DII during the COVID first wave period as compared to the pre COVID. Being FII and DII are very important for any countries economy, therefore studying the same and especially for the COVID period is highly essential from the Future perspective. This paper is original as till date no study has been conducted in detail to study the pattern and impact of FII and DII during the COVID times. © 2022. Specialusis Ugdymas. All Rights Reserved.

Investor behavior and cryptocurrency market bubbles during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose Cryptocurrencies lack fundamental values and are often subject to behavioral bias leading to market bubbles. This study aims to investigate the contribution of the coronavirus pandemic to the creation of market bubbles. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies four major cryptocurrency market bubbles by using the Phillips et al. (2016) (hereafter PSY) test. Subsequently, the co-movements of the coronavirus proxies with PSY measurement using the wavelet approach were studied. Findings Short-lived bubbles are detected at the beginning of the studied period, and more extended bubble periods are identified at the end. Besides, the empirical results show evidence of significant negative co-movement between each pandemic proxy and each cryptocurrency bubble measurement. Research limitations/implications Given the complex financial dynamics of the cryptocurrency markets due to some behavioral biases in some circumstances, investors can benefit from the date stamping of the bubbles bursting to make the best trading positions. In the same way, governments could support the healthy development of cryptocurrencies by preventing bubbles during such pandemics. Originality/value The financial bubble is commonly attributed to a change in investor behavior. Because traders and investors think they can resell the asset at a higher price in the future. This study explored the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the creation of these bubbles by date stamping their occurrence and explosive periods. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt that explores the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to the creation of bubbles caused by a change in the investors' behavior.

Time-varying herding spillover for emerging countries: evidence from BRIC countries and Turkey

Purpose This study aims to investigate herding spillover in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries and Turkey under different regimes by using a time-varying approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the structural change model of Bai and Perron (1998). Findings The results indicate that there is an evidence of herding behaviour in the Chinese stock market in two different regimes. These regimes cover the recent global financial crisis and the period of Hong Kong protests. We also report the evidence of herding behaviour in the Turkish stock market in the regime covering the COVID-19 period. Findings of herding spillover show that there is a two-way herding among Russia and China during crises and high volatile regimes. Similarly, there exists a cross-country herding among Brazil and India during crisis regimes. Also, there is herding spillover from Turkey to Russia, China and Brazil during the global financial crisis, post-European debt crisis and COVID-19 periods respectively. Furthermore, it is also evident that there is a herding spillover from Russia and China to India during the period covering COVID-19. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that uses structural change approach to identify herding behaviour spillovers from the US stock market to BRIC countries and Turkey and to investigate the cross-country herding behaviour among BRIC countries and Turkey.

Do economic crises cause trading in Bitcoin?

Purpose The paper provides new evidence for Bitcoin's safe-haven property by examining the relationship between currency price, return and Bitcoin trading volume. Design/methodology/approach A unique dataset from a person-to-person (p2p) exchange is used to investigate association between Bitcoin trading volume and currency prices. Currency returns are used to identify local economic crises, the 8 crisis affected currencies are Venezuela Bolivar (VES), Iranian Rial (IRR), Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH), Argentine Peso (ARS), Egyptian Pound (EGP), Nigerian Naira (NGN), Turkish Lira (TRY) and Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT). Findings The paper demonstrates that local economic crises are positively associated with increased Bitcoin trading. There is a negative association between trading volume and currency value (and return), suggesting low currency price and currency depreciation are accompanied with increased Bitcoin trading. The results not only hold for the crisis affected currencies but also currencies of advanced economies. Granger causality test also reinforces the negative association results. Originality/value The finding indicates some forms of flight-to-safety have occurred during local market crises when capital flight from domestic markets to Bitcoin, strengthening Bitcoin's hedging asset status. However, total global trading volume declines after the start of the COVID pandemic, suggesting that Bitcoin is still regarded as a speculative asset. Overall, the findings show that Bitcoin is a hedging asset to protect against local currency depreciation, but not a safe-haven asset for the global crisis.

Public Banks, Public Purpose, and Early Actions in the Face of Covid-19

With the outbreak of the global Covid-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns, economic activity came to a grinding halt as demands for financial support in health, business, and government skyrocketed. In spring 2020 we assembled a team of experts to conduct rapid response research on how public banks worldwide responded to the Covid-19 crisis. The team employed case study methods to examine cases in the global north and south. A synthesis of our findings is presented here. We conclude that the most promising public bank responses to the crisis were those substantively guided by public purpose. Where public purpose had a more challenging relationship to public bank responses, the responses were more ambiguous and more difficult to differentiate from private banks. This rapid response study also points to promising lessons for how public banks can help to catalyse momentum to ‘build forward better’ and it raises a series of questions in need of further research. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Review of Political Economy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Are ESG stocks safe-haven during COVID-19?

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate safe-haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) stocks in global and emerging ESG stock markets during the times of COVID-19 so that portfolio managers and equity market investors could decide to use ESG stocks in their portfolio hedging strategies during times of health and market crisis similar to COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a wavelet coherence framework on four major ESG stock indices from global and emerging stock markets, and two proxies of COVID-19 fear over the period from 5 February 2020 to 18 March 2021. Findings The results of the study show a positive co-movement of the global COVID-19 fear index (GFI) with ESG stock indices on the frequency band of 32 to 64 days, which confirms hedging and safe-haven properties of ESG stocks using the health fear proxy of COVID-19. However, the relationship between all indices and GFI is mixed and inconclusive on a frequency of 0-8 days. Further, the findings do not support the safe-haven characteristics of ESG indices using the market fear proxy (IDEMV index) of COVID-19. The robustness analysis using the CBOE VIX as a proxy of market fear supports that ESG indices do not possess safe-haven properties. The results of the study conclude that the safe-haven properties of ESG indices during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is contingent upon the proxy of COVID-19 fear. Practical implications The findings have important implications for the equity investors and assetty managers to improve their portfolio performance by including ESG stocks in their portfolio choice during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar health crisis. However, their investment decisions could be affected by the choice of COVID-19 proxy. Originality/value The authors believe in the originality of the paper due to following reasons. First, to the best of the knowledge, this is the first study investigating the safe-haven properties of ESG stocks. Second, the authors use both health fear (GFI) and market fear (IDEMV index) proxies of COVID-19 to compare whether safe-haven properties are characterized by health fear or market fear due to COVID-19. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherency framework, which not only takes both time and frequency dimensions of the data into account but also remains unaffected by data stationarity and size issues.

Global syndicated lending during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper examines the pricing of global syndicated loans during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that loan spreads rise by over 11 basis points in response to a one standard deviation increase in the lender's exposure to COVID-19 and over 5 basis points for an equivalent increase in the borrower's exposure. This implies excess interestof about USD 5.16 million and USD 2.37 million respectively for a loan of average size and duration. The aggravating effect of the pandemic is exacerbated with the level of government restrictions to tackle the virus's spread, with firms' financial constraints and reliance on debt financing, whereas it is mitigated for relationship borrowers, borrowers listed in multiple exchanges or headquartered in countries that can attract institutional investors.